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  • P-ISSN 2586-2995
  • E-ISSN 2586-4130
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KDI Journal of Economic Policy. Vol. 44, No. 4, November 2022, pp. 79-108

https://doi.org/10.23895/kdijep.2022.44.4.79

× KDI Open Access is a program of fully open access journals to facilitate the widest possible dissemination of high-quality research. All research articles published in KDI JEP are immediately, permanently and freely available online for everyone to read, download and share in terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Sentiment Shock and Housing Prices: Evidence from Korea

DONG-JIN PYO

Author & Article History

Manuscript received 28 January 2022; revision received 07 March 2022; accepted 14 June 2022.

Abstract

This study examines the impact of sentiment shock, which is defined as a stochastic innovation to the Housing Market Confidence Index (HMCI) that is orthogonal to past housing price changes, on aggregate housing price changes and housing price volatility. This paper documents empirical evidence that sentiment shock has a statistically significant relationship with Korea’s aggregate housing price changes. Specifically, the key findings show that an increase in sentiment shock predicts a rise in the aggregate housing price and a drop in its volatility at the national level. For the Seoul Metropolitan Region (SMR), this study also suggests that sentiment shock is positively associated with one-month-ahead aggregate housing price changes, whereas an increase in sentiment volatility tends to increase housing price volatility as well. In addition, the out-of-sample forecasting exercises conducted here reveal that the prediction model endowed with sentiment shock and sentiment volatility outperforms other competing prediction models.

Keywords

Sentiment, Housing Price, Out-of-sample Forecasts, Seemingly Unrelated Regression

JEL Code

G12, R30

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