한국개발연구. Vol. 14, No. 1, April 1992, pp. 37-60
This paper applies a Structural VAR approach to a 4 variable system in real GNP, M2, GNP deflator and nominal monthly earnings, disentangling 4 structural shocks, i.e., aggregate demand and supply shocks, wage pushes and various forms of regulations reinforced especially during stabilization process. Preliminary diagnostic tests confirm that the log level of each time series has at least one unit root, though the evidence is somewhat ambiguous for real GNP. One co-integration relationship is found among 4 variables, while no co-integration is found in a subsystem consisting of nominal variables. The absence of co-integration among nominal variables strongly suggested that money is not neutral even in the long-run. The reduced form is estimated and the structural form is recovered using 6 additional identifying restrictions. Recovered structural shocks are able to capture main episodes of past 20 years, ranging from first and second oil shocks, to strong stabilization policy of early 80's and rapid wage hikes of late 80's. Overall responses of the economy to each structural shock are usually consistent with the standard Keynesian predictions, though some responses seem to be specific to Korean economic environment.