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한국개발연구. Vol. 9, No. 1, June 1987, pp. 3-26
https://doi.org/10.23895/kdijep.1987.9.1.3
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An Analysis of the Effects of the 'Three Blessings' on the Korean Economy with a Time-Varying BVAR Model (Written in Korean)
Abstract
본연구의 목적은 과거 2년간 삼저 현상이 실질국민총생산, 수출, 수입(유류도입액 제외) 및 도매물가지수에 미친 영향을 분석하는 데 있다. 분석에 있어서는 ‘Lucas의 비평’에 위배되지 않도록 하기 위하여 모형의 계수가 시간이 흐름에 따라 변화할 수 있도록 허용한 BVAR모형을 작성하여 사용하였다. 이에 따라 삼저 효과를 국제금리, 원유가격, 달러화가치 등의 변동으로서의 순수한 가격효과와 이들 가격변동으로 야기된 경제행위주체의 행동변화를 반영하는 경제구조변화효과로 양분하여 계산하였다. 분석결과에 의하면 구조변화효과가 가격효과에 못지않게 상당히 큰 것으로 계산되어, 대외여건의 급변에 대한 경제행위주체의 대응노력이 매우 중요했던 것으로 나타났다. 이는 어떠한 축약형모형을 사용하여 정책의 급선회 혹은 대외여건의 급변과 같은 시뮬레이션을 할 때에는 그 결과가 매우 부정확할 수도 있다는 것을 의미한다.
JEL Code
E19
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Other articles from this issue
- An Analysis of the Effects of the 'Three Blessings' on the Korean Economy with a Time-Varying BVAR Model (Written in Korean)
- A Dynamic Analysis of Labor Turnover in Korea (Written in Korean)
- An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Labor Absorptive Capacity and Manpower Demand (Written in Korean)
- The Effect of Uncertainty on the Firm Size : Case of the Textiles Industry (Written in Korean)
- An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Korea's Loyalty Payments in Technology Licensing (Written in Korean)
- The Economic Impact of Protecting Foreign Copyright Works (Written in Korean)
- A Structural Analysis of the Effects of Interest Rate: Comment (Written in Korean)
- A Structural Analysis of the Effects of Interest Rate: Reply (Written in Korean)
- Money Supply Shocks and the Short-Run Demand for Money: An Analysis of the Shock-Absorber Demand Function : Comment (Written in Korean)
- Money Supply Shocks and the Short-Run Demand for Money: An Analysis of the Shock-Absorber Demand Function : Reply (Written in Korean)
- The Master National Pension Plan and Its Social Economic Effects: Book Review (Written in Korean)
- Economic Policy and Management in North Korea: Book Review (Written in Korean)
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