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  • P-ISSN 2586-2995
  • E-ISSN 2586-4130
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KDI Journal of Economic Policy. Vol. 45, No. 3, August 2023, pp. 1-24

https://doi.org/10.23895/kdijep.2023.45.3.1

× KDI Open Access is a program of fully open access journals to facilitate the widest possible dissemination of high-quality research. All research articles published in KDI JEP are immediately, permanently and freely available online for everyone to read, download and share in terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

The Peace Effects of Inter-Korean Trade and the Political-Economic Separation: Analysis of the Reciprocal Effects of Inter-Korean Relations and Inter-Korean Trade†

KYOOCHUL KIM

Author & Article History

Manuscript received 20 March 2023; revision received 27 March 2023; accepted 24 April 2023.

Abstract

This paper empirically examines the relationship between inter-Korean trade and inter-Korean relations over the past three decades. It asks two questions: (1) Does inter-Korean trade contribute to improved inter- Korean relations and peace on the Korean Peninsula? (2) Does improved inter-Korean relations lead to increased inter-Korean trade? The study employs a time-series causal relationship analysis methodology to answer these questions. The findings show that during the progressive government’s reign, inter-Korean trade was not impacted by inter-Korean relations. This is due to the implementation of a political-economic separation policy towards North Korea. Moreover, the increase in general trade and processing on commission did enhance inter-Korean relations, reflecting the “inclusive policy” aimed at achieving peace on the Korean Peninsula through inter-Korean trade. In contrast, during the conservative government’s reign, inter-Korean relations had a direct impact on inter-Korean trade, with deteriorating relations leading to a significant decrease in trade. This was due to the implementation of North Korea policies that were linked to politics and the economy.

Keywords

Inter-Korean Trade, Inter-Korean Relations, GDELT, Peace Effect, Political-Economic Separation

JEL Code

F51, P33

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