- P-ISSN 1738-656X
한국개발연구. Vol. 29, No. 2, December 2007, pp. 1-40
https://doi.org/10.23895/kdijep.2005.29.2.1
This paper mainly estimates a trajectory of GDP induced by variations in fiscal expenditure and taxation policy using three variable structural VAR models. By assigning different combinations of identifying restrictions on the disturbances and measuring the corresponding fiscal multipliers, we compare how robust the estimated values of fiscal multipliers are with respect to the restrictions. Then, considering the dependency of Korean economy on the foreign sector, we extend the three variable SVARs to four variable ones by adding a variable reflecting external shocks. Empirical analyses into the Korean quarterly data (from 1979 to 2000) with the three variable SVARs reveal that the size and the significance of the estimated fiscal multipliers in Korea are very small and low or they decay very fast. Results from the four variable SVARs confirm these results while the significance of the effectiveness of fiscal policy is enhanced in some cases.
구조적 벡터자기회귀 모형(Structural Vector Auto Regression), 식별조건(identification restrictions), 재정승수(fiscal multipliers)
C22, E62, H30