Journal Archive

Home > Journal Archive
Cover Image
  • P-ISSN 2586-2995
  • E-ISSN 2586-4130
Cite

KDI Journal of Economic Policy. Vol. 47, No. 4, November 2025, pp. 73-130

https://doi.org/10.23895/kdijep.2025.47.4.73

× KDI Open Access is a program of fully open access journals to facilitate the widest possible dissemination of high-quality research. All research articles published in KDI JEP are immediately, permanently and freely available online for everyone to read, download and share in terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Heterogeneous Impacts of the U.S.-China Trade War on Korea: What Drives Industry Differences?

HEEHYUN LIM

Author & Article History

Manuscript received 25 June 2025; revision received 30 June 2025; accepted 08 September 2025.

Abstract

This paper analyzes how the U.S.–China trade war affected Korean industries and identifies the industry characteristics that determined which industries gained or lost. I show that heterogeneity in responses is closely linked to capital intensity and export intensity, highlighting the role of economies of scale and export readiness. Using detailed industry-level data from Korean manufacturing, the analysis finds that capital-intensive industries with substantial pre-war investments and industries with high export intensity achieved greater growth and cost reductions following the tariff shocks. These findings indicate that industries positioned to expand their scale captured the gains, while others were left behind, emphasizing the importance of targeted and differentiated policy support for pre-investment, capital deepening, and export infrastructure ultimately to enable more industries to leverage external trade disruptions as opportunities for sustained growth.

Keywords

Tariff Elasticity, Trade War, Trade Fragmentation, Third-country Effect, Economies of Scale

JEL Code

F12, F13, F14, C33

상단으로 이동

KDIJEP