Journal Archive

Home > Journal Archive
Cover Image
  • P-ISSN 2586-2995
  • E-ISSN 2586-4130
Cite

KDI Journal of Economic Policy. Vol. 47, No. 3, August 2025, pp. 69-88

https://doi.org/10.23895/kdijep.2025.47.3.69

× KDI Open Access is a program of fully open access journals to facilitate the widest possible dissemination of high-quality research. All research articles published in KDI JEP are immediately, permanently and freely available online for everyone to read, download and share in terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

The Macroeconomic Effects of Structural Oil Price Shocks: An International GVAR Analysis

SORA CHON

Author & Article History

Manuscript received 26 February 2025; revision received 27 February 2025; accepted 31 July 2025.

Abstract

This paper investigates the macroeconomic impacts of structural oil price shocks by employing a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) framework, utilizing the structural shocks as identified by Baumeister and Hamilton (2019). Our analysis differentiates among three types of oil shocks: economic activity shocks caused by fluctuations in global demand, oil supply shocks driven by production disruptions, and oil inventory demand shocks linked to shifts in market expectations about future supply-demand imbalances. Empirical findings indicate that the macroeconomic consequences of these shocks differ depending on their underlying sources and related structural characteristics. In oil-importing countries such as Korea and China, oil supply disruptions and inventory-related shocks generally exert negative short-term effects on economic activity due to increased import costs and uncertainty-driven price volatility. Conversely, oil-exporting countries such as Canada and the United States respond differently, benefiting from increased export opportunities associated with higher oil prices. Overall, the study emphasizes the critical importance of distinguishing the structural causes of oil price fluctuations, highlighting how the indirect transmission of these shocks through international economic linkages significantly influences domestic macroeconomic performance outcomes. The results provide important implications for policymakers, underscoring the necessity of tailored policy responses to mitigate macroeconomic risks arising from energy transitions and geopolitical uncertainties.

Keywords

Energy and commodity market, Global VAR (GVAR), Structural Oil Shock, Macroeconomic impact

JEL Code

Q41, Q43, E32

상단으로 이동

KDIJEP