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  • P-ISSN 2586-2995
  • E-ISSN 2586-4130
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KDI Journal of Economic Policy. Vol. 47, No. 1, February 2025, pp. 19-66

https://doi.org/10.23895/kdijep.2025.47.1.19

× KDI Open Access is a program of fully open access journals to facilitate the widest possible dissemination of high-quality research. All research articles published in KDI JEP are immediately, permanently and freely available online for everyone to read, download and share in terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

The Impact of External Uncertainty Shocks on the Korean Economy†

JUNHYONG KIM

Author & Article History

Manuscript received 29 July 2024; revision received 01 August 2024; accepted 23 September 2024.

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the impact of external uncertainty shocks on the Korean economy, focusing on Russian geopolitical risks and U.S. monetary policy uncertainty. We find that increases in external uncertainties negatively affect the Korean macroeconomy, with a particularly pronounced impact on sectors highly dependent on external markets. Our micro-level analysis reveals that the effects of external uncertainties on exports vary across different countries and sectors. A firm-level analysis further suggests that Russian geopolitical risks primarily impact the economy through real friction, while U.S. monetary policy uncertainty affects it through both real and financial friction. By identifying multiple transmission channels through both a macro- and a micro-level analysis, we provide a comprehensive understanding of how uncertainty affects the real economy. Our findings could offer valuable insights for policymakers when responding to rapidly changing external conditions.

Keywords

Geopolitical Risks, Uncertainty Shocks, Investment, Global trade, Open Economy, Macroeconomics

JEL Code

E22, E32, F44

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