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  • P-ISSN 2586-2995
  • E-ISSN 2586-4130
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KDI Journal of Economic Policy. Vol. 45, No. 3, August 2023, pp. 25-48

https://doi.org/10.23895/kdijep.2023.45.3.25

× KDI Open Access is a program of fully open access journals to facilitate the widest possible dissemination of high-quality research. All research articles published in KDI JEP are immediately, permanently and freely available online for everyone to read, download and share in terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Productive Capacities, Structural Economic Vulnerability and Fiscal Space Volatility in Developing Countries†

SENA KIMM GNANGNON

Author & Article History

Manuscript received 03 February 2023; revision received 08 February 2023; accepted 27 June 2023.

Abstract

The current article has explored the effect of productive capacities (as defined by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development) and of structural economic vulnerability (as defined by the United Nations) on fiscal space volatility in developing countries. It relies on the definition and measure of fiscal space proposed by Aizenman and Jinjarak (2010; 2011) and Aizenman et al. (2019). To compute the indicator of fiscal space and hence that of fiscal space volatility, fiscal space is considered as the ratio of outstanding public debt to the ‘de facto tax base’, the latter being the number of years of tax revenues needed for a country to repay its debt. Results based on a sample of 116 countries from 2000 to 2018 have revealed that the enhancement of productive capacities is associated with lower fiscal space volatility, while higher structural economic vulnerability heightens fiscal space volatility. On another note, highly vulnerable countries tend to experience a higher negative effect of productive capacities on fiscal space volatility than relatively less vulnerable countries.

Keywords

Productive capacities, Structural economic vulnerability, Fiscal space volatility

JEL Code

D24, O10, E60

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