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  • P-ISSN 2586-2995
  • E-ISSN 2586-4130
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KDI Journal of Economic Policy. Vol. 41, No. 2, May 2019, pp. 1-39

https://doi.org/10.23895/kdijep.2019.41.2.1

× KDI Open Access is a program of fully open access journals to facilitate the widest possible dissemination of high-quality research. All research articles published in KDI JEP are immediately, permanently and freely available online for everyone to read, download and share in terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Equity across Generations and Uncertainty within a Generation: A Welfare Analysis of the National Pension System

KYOOHO KWON

Author & Article History

Manuscript received 29 November 2018; revision received 03 December 2018; accepted 14 January 2019.

Abstract

This paper utilizes a life-cycle overlapping-generations model to quantify the welfare effects of plans to postpone the depletion of the National Pension Fund. In order for the model to incorporate the rapidly changing demographic structure of Korea fully, we build and calibrate a model in transition directly. The model is considered suitable for analyzing the effects of demographic changes on the Korean economy and the effects of plans to change the National Pension System. According to a simulation of the model, to postpone the depletion of the National Pension Fund for 30 years, the premium rate must be increased to 18.3% from the current rate of 9%. By postponing the depletion of the fund reserve, young and future generations gain significantly at the expense of the older generations. The simulation results should be, however, interpreted as meaning that the current system is unjustifiably partial to the older generations. Moreover, given the current premium rate, it is desirable to strengthen the incomeredistribution function of the National Pension System.

Keywords

Heterogeneous Agent Models, Population Aging, National Pension System, Pension Reform

JEL Code

C68, E21, J11

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