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  • P-ISSN 2586-2995
  • E-ISSN 2586-4130
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KDI Journal of Economic Policy. Vol. 39, No. 3, August 2017, pp. 43-62

https://doi.org/10.23895/kdijep.2017.39.3.43

× KDI Open Access is a program of fully open access journals to facilitate the widest possible dissemination of high-quality research. All research articles published in KDI JEP are immediately, permanently and freely available online for everyone to read, download and share in terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Korean Housing Cycle: Implications for Risk Management (Factor-augmented VAR Approach)

HYUCK-SHIN KWON; DOO WON BANG; MYEONG HYEON KIM

Author & Article History

Manuscript received 29 May 2017; revision received 30 May 2017; accepted 25 August 2017.

Abstract

This paper proposes an integrated risk-management framework that includes 1) measuring the risk of credit portfolios, 2) implementing a (macro) stress test, and 3) setting risk limits using the estimated systematic latent factor specific to capture the housing market cycle. To this end, we extract information from a set of real-estate market variables based on the FAVAR methodology proposed by Bernanke, Boivin and Eliasz (2005). Then, we show the method by which the estimated systematic factor is applied to risk management in the housing market in an integrated manner within the Vasicek one-factor credit model. The proposed methodology is well fitted to analyze the risk of slow-moving and low-defaultable forms of capital, such as alternative investments.

Keywords

Housing Cycle, FAVAR, Risk Management

JEL Code

R3, E17, G32

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