- P-ISSN 1738-656X
한국개발연구. Vol. 31, No. 1, June 2009, pp. 1-25
https://doi.org/10.23895/kdijep.2009.31.1.1
This paper attempts to estimate the natural rates of output and interest of Korea in a simple DSGE set-up with a few stylized New Keynesian features using Bayesian methods. The major findings of this paper are as follows. First, the estimates of output gaps are less volatile than the measures from conventional approaches, although they exhibit non-negligible variations depending on the model specification. Another key finding is that the hybrid type Phillips curve with a backward-looking component and/or habit formation in consumption may play an important role in characterizing the macroeconomic dynamics of Korea.
Natural output(자연 산출량(GDP)), Natural rate of interest(자연 이자율), DSGE model(동태적확률 일반 균형 모형), Bayesian estimation(베이지안 추정)
D11, H21, H26, H31