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  • P-ISSN 1738-656X
  • E-ISSN 2586-4130
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한국개발연구. Vol. 36, No. 2, May 2014, pp. 65-101

https://doi.org/10.23895/kdijep.2014.36.2.65

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Analyzing Expected Inflation Based on a Term Structure Model: A Case of Korea

Joon hyuk Song

Author & Article History

Manuscript received 03 January 2014; revision received 03 January 2014; accepted 25 March 2014.

Abstract

This paper estimates and characterizes expected inflations using an affine term structure model based on the empirical stochastic process of the interest rates in Korea. The empirical results show that the expected inflation which marked above 4% before the global financial crisis has dampened and stabilized after the crisis. Moreover, we investigate the rationality of the various expected inflation measures in terms of the unbiasedness and efficiency and find that unbiasedness is not rejected across the all measures, while the efficiency cannot be empirically warranted. Besides, we run Granger causality tests and conclude that the expected inflations compiled from the Consensus, BOK-Expert have the cross-causality with the long-run actual inflation, while the expected inflation estimated from the term structure model has the cross-causality with the short-run actual inflation. These results connote that expected inflations collected from different sources and methods have their targets and horizons and the central bank needs to watch all of them with a balanced view instead of preferring one to the other.

Keywords

수익률곡선(Yield Curve), 기대인플레이션(Expected Inflation)

JEL Code

E43, E52

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