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한국개발연구. Vol. 32, No. 2, June 2010, pp. 1-26

https://doi.org/10.23895/kdijep.2010.32.2.1

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Globalization of Capital Markets and Monetary Policy Independence in Korea

So young Kim; Kwan ho Shin

Author & Article History

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Abstract

This paper empirically examines whether Korean monetary policy is independent of U.S. monetary policy during the post-crisis period in which capital account is liberalized and floating exchange rate regime is adopted and during the pre-crisis period in which capital mobility is restricted and tightly managed exchange rate regime is adopted. Before capital account liberalization, monetary autonomy can be achieved in view of the trillema, even under tightly managed exchange rate regime, as capital mobility is restricted. On the other hand, for the period after capital account liberalization, monetary autonomy can be also achieved in view of the trillema, as exchange rate stability is given up. Securing monetary autonomy, however, may not be easy under liberalized capital account for a small open economy like Korea. Huge capital movements can generate excessive instability in foreign exchange and asset markets. Strengthened international economic linkages may also be another factor to prevent monetary policy from being independent. Using block-exogenous structural VAR model, the effects of U.S. monetary policy shocks on Korean economy are examined. Empirical results show that Korean monetary policy is not independent of U.S. monetary policy for both periods before and after capital account liberalization. For the period after capital account liberalization, Korea does not seem to have implemented floating exchange rate policy in practice, which may lead Korean monetary policy to be dependent on U.S. monetary policy. For the period after capital account liberalization, portfolio flows respond dramatically to the U.S. monetary policy, which may also keep Korean monetary policy from being independent.

Keywords

자본시장 글로벌화(Capital Market Globalization), 통화정책 독립성(Monetary Policy Autonomy), VAR, 환율제도(Exchange Rate Regime), 통화정책 충격(Monetary Policy Shocks)

JEL Code

E52, F42, F31, F32

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