한국개발연구. Vol. 13, No. 2, August 1991, pp. 21-39
This paper introduces a two-sector model to analyze the real and monetary determinants of Korea's real exchange rate. So far, most studies on Korea's exchange rate have concentrated on the behavior of nominal exchange rate, but this study proposes a dynamic model of real exchange rate behavior in developing countries and estimates the real and financial determinants of Korea's real exchange rate behavior. The estimation was performed over the period of 1980-89. The results show many interesting things. First, the monetary and fiscal expansion led to a real appreciation, which suggests that the monetary and fiscal stances be kept sound for a real depreciation. Second, the improvement in the terms of trade led to a real depreciation. This experience is in the contrast to the popular view that the improvement in the terms of trade will result in a real appreciation. Third, the productivity growth led to a real appreciation, but this effect of the Ricardo-Balassa type was not significant. Finally, the nominal devaluation was quite effective to produce a real depreciation. This result also supports Korea's exchange rate policy in the 1980s which was based upon the real target approach instead of nominal anchor approach.
F31, F30, F33